How XRP correlates to the price of oil
As macro factors are driving up the price of oil, temporary knock-on effects are weighing on the price of XRP.
The price of XRP and oil. Those two numbers, taken together, tell you something that most crypto influencers ignore.
This email is not a bait-and-switch. I’m opening with the punchline: When oil goes up, XRP goes down.
Not always in lockstep. Not always immediately. But that pattern in 2026 has been so consistent that ignoring it is a mistake.
In today’s email, I’m going to show you how I’m profiting from this inconsistent yet undeniable correlation by perfecting it with additional information sources that allow me to make profitable trades.
Market Context
Let’s start with a pre-Iran war baseline. On January 1, 2026, West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $57 per barrel, and XRP was at $1.83.
By February 27, one day before US strikes on Iran began, crude oil was at $67 per barrel – hey, maybe a few oil traders knew something early, okay? – and XRP was at $1.36.
There is the first pattern: oil up, XRP down.
Within minutes of the war strikes during the early morning hours of February 28, crude spiked to the $70s and XRP dipped to $1.27.
Yet again: oil up, XRP down. The pattern had become obvious.
Although oil is vastly larger than XRP and trades for mostly unrelated reasons such as transport logistics, XRP is actually the only blockchain besides Ethereum that hosts over $1 billion worth of tokenized commodities.
Moreover, many XRP investors are institutional and savvy about geopolitical catalysts, so they correctly interpret risk-off events such as the onset of a major war as a catalyst for lower prices in speculative assets like XRP.
I’ll keep digging more into this in today’s XRP Premium Analysis.
News
UK blocks crypto donations, caps overseas giving (Reuters)
Australia Reserve Bank signals tokenization could drive major financial system shifts (Rba.gov.au)
US Representative Moulton (D-MA) bans staff from using prediction markets (CNBC)
Bitcoin Depot $BTM names former MoneyGram CEO as Chairman and CEO (BitcoinDepot)
Cipher Digital $CIFR secures third data center campus lease (CipherDigital)
Court dismisses case claiming crowdfunding software violates money transmission laws (CoinTelegraph)
Franklin Templeton $BEN partners with Ondo Finance on tokenized ETFs (Bloomberg)
Binance revises market making rules to reduce manipulation risk (Bloomberg)
BitGo and ZKsync roll out full stack infrastructure for tokenized bank deposits (CoinDesk)
Bitmine Immersion $BMNR launches staking platform (PRNewswire)
Stablecoin rewards restrictions can slow Circle’s USDC -Citigroup (Coindesk)
New Brazil law lets authorities use crypto seized during investigations (Coindesk)
Nothing in this newsletter is financial or investment advice. We summarize news for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not provide advisory services, guidance, or information regarding trading or investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
XRP Premium Analysis
As oil rose year-to-date, XRP fell 27% over the same period.
Every sustained oil spike above $90 this year has corresponded with XRP pulling back. Conversely, almost every oil pullback has given XRP breathing room to rally.
This is not a coincidence.
Here is the causal chain, and I need you to understand every link.
First, if oil is surging, that means…