Notably, the rally came with a 180-million-XRP volume surge, a short squeeze that wiped out $6.03 million in bearish positions in 24 hours, improving macro sentiment, and fresh institutional inflows into XRP spot ETFs.

But the 20-day EMA now sits as the key line in the sand. Without holding above it, the breakout loses its structure.

What drove the XRP price rally to begin with?

The biggest trigger was macro. Reports of an impending US-Iran peace deal, expected to be signed by June 19, shifted sentiment across risk assets almost instantly, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP caught a bid as traders moved away from defensive positioning.

On the Ripple side, the listing of the RLUSD stablecoin on Gate.io, paired with the launch of an XRP/RLUSD trading pair, added a direct utility angle to the XRP price move. RLUSD is Ripple’s dollar-pegged stable-coin, and its expanding exchange presence matters because it deepens the payment and settlement infrastructure that XRP’s long-term use case depends on.

Ripple has also been building aggressively on the XRP Ledger. The company recently launched an AI Starter Kit that allows developers to build agent-based payment applications directly on the XRPL, and announced support for the X402 protocol, which enables AI agents to transact using XRP and RLUSD.

Separately, Securitize enabled conversions between shares of BlackRock’s tokenized BUIDL fund and RLUSD, and Ripple partnered with Franklin Templeton and DBS on a tokenized lending initiative that also uses RLUSD as a settlement layer. The pace of institutional integration on the XRP Ledger has accelerated visibly in June.

So far, XRP Ledger has outperformed all other blockchains, including Ethereum, when it comes to real-world asset (RWA) inflows.

Beyond macro and on-chain factors, the short squeeze also added fuel to the rally. When XRP broke $1.20, traders who had bet against the rally were forced to buy back their positions to cut losses, forcing $6.03 million out of a total $7 million in liquidations over 24 hours and pushing XRP past $1.25 quickly.

The risks ahead and today’s outlook

The most immediate risk on the calendar is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on June 17. If the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, risk assets across the board would come under pressure, and XRP would not be immune.

A broad crypto selloff triggered by the Fed could push XRP back below $1.20 quickly.

The $1.20 level is now the most important price on the chart. It was in resistance for weeks, and the breakout above it on June 15 flipped it to support.

If XRP closes a daily candle below $1.20, the technical structure of the breakout would deteriorate, and the next meaningful support sits in the $1.14 to $1.15 range, representing a 7% to 8% pullback from current levels.

The 20-day EMA is the key indicator to watch for continuation. XRP broke above it alongside the channel breakout, and holding above it on a daily close basis is the minimum requirement for the bullish structure to remain intact.

A loss of the 20-day EMA, combined with a drop below $1.20, would confirm that this was a failed breakout rather than the start of a sustained move higher.

On the upside, the next resistance zone is $1.27 to $1.30, which capped the initial rally on June 15. A clean daily close above $1.30 opens the door to $1.35 to $1.40 as the next target range.

However, XRP would need to sustain volume above the 180-million-XRP level seen during the breakout to support a push into that range.

In addition, the US-Iran peace deal expected on June 19 is also a binary event. If it closes on schedule, it removes a layer of macro uncertainty and likely supports risk appetite through the end of the week. If it stalls or falls apart, that macro tailwind reverses, and XRP loses one of the key drivers that helped fuel the initial rally.